Ukraine Gets ATACMS, Biden Escalates Stakes in War Trump May Inherit

Retired US Colonel: Biden Signals North Korea and China on Backing Russia

US President Joe Biden's decision to permit Ukraine to use long-range American missiles within Russian territory follows a familiar pattern.

For months, the Biden administration resists a weapons request from Kyiv, citing fears of escalation. Ukraine protests loudly, and just when the request appears shelved, the administration reverses course. This sequence played out with HIMARS, Abrams tanks, and F-16s. Now, ATACMS—the US-made Army Tactical Missile Systems—join the list.

But is it too late for these missiles to significantly impact the war?

The answer is complicated and may explain the administration's initial hesitation.

1. Limited Supply and Impact

Ukraine’s access to ATACMS is restricted, with the missiles' longer range—around 100 km (62 miles)—insufficient to shift the battlefield overnight. Analysts, including the Institute for the Study of War, have identified hundreds of potential targets in range, but these missiles alone are unlikely to change the war’s trajectory.

2. Alternative Means of Striking Deep

Ukraine has already achieved notable success using domestically produced, cost-effective drones to penetrate Russian territory. These drones, partially funded by the US, have targeted Moscow’s airports and Russia’s energy infrastructure, causing significant disruption.

3. The Risks of Provocation

Authorizing precision strikes deeper into Russia is undeniably provocative. While Moscow’s military capabilities are weakened, the Kremlin remains capable of asymmetric retaliation, such as sabotage in NATO countries. Recent reports of explosive devices planted on European courier planes highlight this risk.

The administration balanced the strategic benefits of longer-range strikes against the potential for unintended consequences, including civilian harm within NATO states. This deliberation underscores the complexity of the decision.

North Korea’s Role in Escalation

Biden’s green light for ATACMS also reflects growing concerns about the war's broader implications. Reports of North Korean troops deployed to support Russian forces in Kursk have added a global dimension to the conflict, with adversaries in the Indo-Pacific now entangled. The US framed its decision as a proportional response to this escalation.

A Decision with High Stakes

The delay in granting Ukraine ATACMS underscores the symbolic weight of Biden's decision. By approving their use now, the administration signals a deeper commitment to Kyiv’s cause, though it risks further escalation.

President-elect Donald Trump may aspire to broker peace, but he will inherit a conflict with higher stakes and a broader geopolitical reach. Biden’s move ensures the next administration faces a war whose complexity and consequences have only grown.